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Di seguito vi riporto i dati del Brasile relativi all'inflazione, sale troppo velocemente, soluzioni...
1 Disincentivare gli investimenti stranieri.
2 Alzare i tassi di interesse.
Nel dettaglio soprattutto questo secondo fattore porterà un forte deflusso di capitali dalle borse verso titoli a rendimento fisso,tenuto anche conto che la borsa brasiliana è sui massimi.
Quindi penso, che questo sia il momento per chi è investito nella borsa carioca, di salutare con un ballo di Samba e attendere i ritracciamenti inevitabili che ci saranno.
A surge in food costs pushed Brazilian consumer prices higher in October, setting the stage for a new round of monetary tightening, perhaps as soon as the first quarter of 2011.
The official IPCA consumer price index gained 0.75% in October compared with 0.45% in September, the Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE, said Tuesday. The index was pushed up by seasonal factors affecting food prices.
Analysts expressed surprise at the October figure, which surpassed the median estimate of 0.68% by 14 analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.
Meanwhile, October showed the closely watched rolling 12-month IPCA rate continuing to advance above the government's year-end target. In the 12 months through October, the IPCA rose at a 5.20% pace versus 4.70% in the 12 months through September. The September figure was already above the government's official year-end 2010 target of 4.50%. A similar target has been adopted for end-2011.
"Underlying inflation has been running quite above the target level, which reinforces our appraisal that recent deterioration on price dynamics is not limited to the foodstuff group," said Flavio Serrano, senior economist at Espirito Santo Investment Bank. "The monetary policymakers are quite likely to adjust the interest rates, aiming to ensure a timely convergence of inflation to the target path."
Serrano expects 150 basis points worth of interest rate hikes, starting in the first quarter of 2011, to help push inflation back toward the 4.5% target.
October's increase confirms a return to the accelerating prices seen earlier this year--and an end to the relatively stable inflation Brazil experienced in the June-August period.
Benign price pressures had allowed the Brazilian Central Bank, in September, to halt a string of interest-rate increases that pushed the benchmark Selic base rate to 10.75%. The key interest rate started 2010 at a historic low of 8.75%.
Consumer prices will likely continue to rise through the end of the year, said Santander Economia's Tatiana Pinheiro. The fourth quarter typically sees seasonal pressures, as families ramp up purchases of specialty items for year-end holiday celebrations.
"The index was driven by the seasonal pattern of foodstuff prices, but the effect of heating up domestic demand on the rest of prices played an important role as well," Pinheiro said. "Food commodities prices...jumped 14% between July and October, and we expect them to continue to be a source of pressure through 4Q10."
In addition, pressure will come before year-end from annual adjustments of electricity rates in some cities and rises in fuel prices, leading to revisions in the interest rate yield curve, according to Santander.
Tight labor markets will continue to boost wages, raising the inflation rate in the services area, said Goldman Sachs economist Luiz Cezario.
The central bank's latest survey of analysts and economists, released Monday, estimated 2010 year-end inflation at 5.31%, up from an estimate of 5.29% a week earlier. For 2011, the IPCA is expected to weigh in at 4.99%.
Food prices, which carry the heaviest weighting in the index, posted a strong advance in October, registering their biggest monthly increase since June 2008, the IBGE said. Food and beverage prices surged 1.89% compared with a 1.08% increase in September. Food prices had declined in June, July and August.
Nonfood prices also rose in October, gaining 0.41% after rising 0.27% in September and 0.12% in August, IBGE said.
Dott Fabio Troglia fabio.troglia@gmail.com www.lamiaeconomia.com
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Postato da Lamiaeconomia di Fabio Troglia su Lamiaeconomia il 11/10/2010 10:52:00 AM
Di seguito vi riporto i dati del Brasile relativi all'inflazione, sale troppo velocemente, soluzioni...
1 Disincentivare gli investimenti stranieri.
2 Alzare i tassi di interesse.
Nel dettaglio soprattutto questo secondo fattore porterà un forte deflusso di capitali dalle borse verso titoli a rendimento fisso,tenuto anche conto che la borsa brasiliana è sui massimi.
Quindi penso, che questo sia il momento per chi è investito nella borsa carioca, di salutare con un ballo di Samba e attendere i ritracciamenti inevitabili che ci saranno.
A surge in food costs pushed Brazilian consumer prices higher in October, setting the stage for a new round of monetary tightening, perhaps as soon as the first quarter of 2011.
The official IPCA consumer price index gained 0.75% in October compared with 0.45% in September, the Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE, said Tuesday. The index was pushed up by seasonal factors affecting food prices.
Analysts expressed surprise at the October figure, which surpassed the median estimate of 0.68% by 14 analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.
Meanwhile, October showed the closely watched rolling 12-month IPCA rate continuing to advance above the government's year-end target. In the 12 months through October, the IPCA rose at a 5.20% pace versus 4.70% in the 12 months through September. The September figure was already above the government's official year-end 2010 target of 4.50%. A similar target has been adopted for end-2011.
"Underlying inflation has been running quite above the target level, which reinforces our appraisal that recent deterioration on price dynamics is not limited to the foodstuff group," said Flavio Serrano, senior economist at Espirito Santo Investment Bank. "The monetary policymakers are quite likely to adjust the interest rates, aiming to ensure a timely convergence of inflation to the target path."
Serrano expects 150 basis points worth of interest rate hikes, starting in the first quarter of 2011, to help push inflation back toward the 4.5% target.
October's increase confirms a return to the accelerating prices seen earlier this year--and an end to the relatively stable inflation Brazil experienced in the June-August period.
Benign price pressures had allowed the Brazilian Central Bank, in September, to halt a string of interest-rate increases that pushed the benchmark Selic base rate to 10.75%. The key interest rate started 2010 at a historic low of 8.75%.
Consumer prices will likely continue to rise through the end of the year, said Santander Economia's Tatiana Pinheiro. The fourth quarter typically sees seasonal pressures, as families ramp up purchases of specialty items for year-end holiday celebrations.
"The index was driven by the seasonal pattern of foodstuff prices, but the effect of heating up domestic demand on the rest of prices played an important role as well," Pinheiro said. "Food commodities prices...jumped 14% between July and October, and we expect them to continue to be a source of pressure through 4Q10."
In addition, pressure will come before year-end from annual adjustments of electricity rates in some cities and rises in fuel prices, leading to revisions in the interest rate yield curve, according to Santander.
Tight labor markets will continue to boost wages, raising the inflation rate in the services area, said Goldman Sachs economist Luiz Cezario.
The central bank's latest survey of analysts and economists, released Monday, estimated 2010 year-end inflation at 5.31%, up from an estimate of 5.29% a week earlier. For 2011, the IPCA is expected to weigh in at 4.99%.
Food prices, which carry the heaviest weighting in the index, posted a strong advance in October, registering their biggest monthly increase since June 2008, the IBGE said. Food and beverage prices surged 1.89% compared with a 1.08% increase in September. Food prices had declined in June, July and August.
Nonfood prices also rose in October, gaining 0.41% after rising 0.27% in September and 0.12% in August, IBGE said.
Dott Fabio Troglia fabio.troglia@gmail.com www.lamiaeconomia.com
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Postato da Lamiaeconomia di Fabio Troglia su Lamiaeconomia il 11/10/2010 10:52:00 AM
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